"The most geopolitical line you can draw is between energy and power," said Robert Kaplan, a geopolitical specialist. This line now passes directly through the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran's shutdown of the most important oil route in the world has unintentionally given Russia its biggest economic lifeline since the start of the conflict in Ukraine. Energy markets fell into chaos after Iran blocked the strait through which 20% of the world's oil flows in response to US-Israeli strikes on Tehran. Suddenly, vital supplies were discovered to be caught behind Iranian guns by China, India, and European countries. According to international relations theory, alliances fall apart before economic survival when nations are unable to meet their basic necessities. This is "energy interdependence" at its most cruel. Russia has emerged as the unlikely winner due to its isolation and difficulties with sanctions. Buyers rushed to find alternatives when Middle Eastern oil went offline. Once heavily discounted, Russian Urles crude now fetches high prices. In just a few weeks, Moscow's oil earnings have increased by about 50%, potentially boosting Kremlin finances by tens of billions. China, which previously shunned Russian grades, has quadrupled its purchases. Despite hyperbole about the crisis in Ukraine, European Union nations are still buying Russian LNG; in January, France alone saw a 57% surge in imports. The timing of this financial boom is ideal for Russia. Every year, a conflict in Ukraine costs more than $130 billion. Budgetary strains were increasing prior to the Iran crisis. Now, from a realism standpoint, each dollar earned from oil sales contributes to Russia's ability to launch an offensive. The crisis thousands of miles away has steadied Russia's war economy in a way that sanctions were unable to.
There are currently no other options for China, the EU, or India. Russia will continue to dominate the energy sector as long as Hormuz is blocked. Geopolitically speaking, one man's difficulty is another's opportunity, and Vladimir Putin is taking advantage of both.
About an author :
Amber is an Advocate and MPhil scholar from Pakistan and the student of Global Politics , Legal and political systems of the world , Governance and public policy.